The incoming Trump administration should embrace a more muscular approach to counter China’s increasingly aggressive behavior in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The stakes could not be higher. Absent a major course correction, Beijing will continue to make diplomatic and military gains at our expense and the risk of war will increase.
By meddling in our elections, embedding itself in our national infrastructure, browbeating our allies, and continuing its massive military buildup, China has advanced its interests and diminished America’s credibility. The Biden administration’s muted response has served only to encourage further aggression.
Consider, for example, China’s adventurism in the South China Sea. In addition to fortifying its manmade islands, which are now bristling with weapons, China has repeatedly rammed, fired lasers, and shot water cannons at Filipino fishermen and coast guardsmen operating in Filipino waters.
China’s warships and fighters have also buzzed U.S. warships and aircraft well over 100 times in the past few years, according to the Pentagon’s most recent report on China. Yet this reckless behavior has elicited little more than furrowed brows and finger wags from U.S. officials.
China continues to browbeat Taiwan with an unrelenting stream of menacing maneuvers aimed at coercion. The People’s Liberation Army has normalized such large exercises to the point that Taiwanese officials have expressed concern they could provide cover for an actual invasion.
China’s aggression extends well beyond the Indo-Pacific region, even putting Americans at risk right here at home. China has already penetrated our key national infrastructure, such as pipelines and electrical grids with its cyber intrusions. In the event of conflict, China is ready to pounce with ‘low blows’ against our citizenry, according to FBI Director Christopher Wray.
China’s provocations extended to our 2024 presidential election. The intelligence community recently publicized China’s efforts to hack into the phones of both presidential campaigns, including then-candidates Donald Trump and JD Vance. This comes on top of intelligence community revelations that China has actively sought to influence key congressional races with its influence operations, thus striking at the heart of our electoral process.
The Biden administration has said precious little in response to these disclosures. This sets a bad precedent. Passive responses today will engender more aggression in the future, which will make outright conflict with China more likely.
The underlying problem is that the Biden administration has placed undue emphasis on ‘competition’ with China. This metaphor is seriously misplaced. Ping pong players ‘compete’ according to agreed-upon rules and gentlemanly norms of sportsmanship. Yet China is a rule-breaker that clearly has no interest in playing nice. Instead of playing games, Beijing seeks to refashion the international order in its image.
The Biden administration has spilled rivers of ink explaining its theory of ‘integrated deterrence,’ which it announced with great fanfare with the release of its 2022 National Defense Strategy. For the most part, this was simply a repackaging of old ideas. China remains unimpressed and undeterred, as its catalogue of aggression indicates.
Restoring deterrence requires a more robust U.S. approach – one that does not shy away from confronting China with targeted measures when and where necessary. Slapping China with tariffs is a good start. So is ramping up freedom of navigation exercises with U.S. warships in the South China Sea. Trump should also take any potential summit with President Xi off the table until China stops menacing Taiwan with its provocative exercises.
To preserve the peace, the U.S. must also better prepare for outright conflict with China. This includes providing the military with the tools necessary to defeat the PLA quickly and decisively if conflict erupts. It means sharpening war plans and formulating strategies that target the Chinese Communist Party’s ability to control not only its military forces, but also its own people.
China’s provocations extended to our 2024 presidential election. The intelligence community recently publicized China’s efforts to hack into the phones of both presidential campaigns, including then-candidates Donald Trump and JD Vance.
All this will require more resources. Defense budgets that fail to keep pace with inflation will no longer suffice. Congress must increase defense spending on a sustained basis in real terms.
Weakness invites provocation. Outdated notions of deterrence and competition no longer suffice to keep the dragon at bay. Military strength and political resolve are needed to reduce the risk of conflict.
It is time to confront China.